Optimal Sizing of Heat Pumps and Thermal Storage for District Heating- A Cost and Performance Analysis Using Perfect Forecast Optimisation
Reading Time: 4 minutes The shift towards electrification in district heating creates opportunities to reduce carbon emissions and operating costs, if systems are sized and operated correctly. This white paper examines the optimal sizing of a heat pump and accumulation tank for supplying heat to a single average household with an annual heat demand of 18.1 MWh, based on scaled real-world data from 2020-2024.
Using a perfect forecast of weather (driving demand) and electricity prices, we optimise operation to determine cost-optimal heat pump capacity and tank size. Results are presented for Western Denmark (DK1) first, then Eastern Denmark (DK2).




